Warming Assessment Through RCM Simulation for South Saurashtra Region

RCM simulations of temperature and precipitation must be handled with caution as they often show a significant effect. Therefore bias correction becomes important to get a clear picture from RCM simulated uncorrected data. The study area includes six grid points (RCMs) from South Saurashtra region. The present analysis is carried out for Kodinar, Keshod, Visavadar, Ranavav, Upleta and Jetpur and daily maximum, minimum and mean temperature was forecasted for their future period of 2046-2064 and for 2081-2100 having the reference of baseline period of 1961-1995. The observed data were collected from JAU observatory, Junagadh for the period 1965 to 2000. The period of 1961-1995 is considered as calibration period and 1996-2000 as validation period. Validation period is needed to check the reliability of Bias Correction method. Annually and seasonally average of maximum, minimum and mean temperature is determined for the overall scenario.