Unrealistic Profits, Unreliable Results: Rethinking Stockpiling Behavior in Consumption Tax Models

Consumption taxes, levied on the final purchase of goods and services, are a prevalent means for governments to raise revenue. To assess the potential impact of these taxes, economists rely on consumption tax models that simulate consumer behavior and predict revenue generation. However, a key limitation of these models lies in their depiction of stockpiling behavior. Stockpiling refers to the act of consumers purchasing goods in advance of a perceived future price increase, often triggered by an anticipated rise in consumption taxes. While acknowledging stockpiling, existing models often rely on simplifying assumptions, leading to potentially unrealistic and misleading results. This paper argues that current consumption tax models often overestimate the extent of stockpiling, resulting in inflated predictions of profit