THE EFFECTS OF EXCHANGE RATE VOLATILITY ON EXPORTS IN NAMIBIA

This piece of work try address the volatility impacts on export through an extenvsive analysis. The econometric analysis was employed to exploit the theory of cointegration, given the obvious non- stationarity of the time series. The study used Engle-Granger two step procedures. Three measures of exchange rate volatilities were used and produced mixed results. The mean adjusted relative change (V) as a measure of exchange rate volatility indicated positive and insignificant impact on real exports of Namibia. The moving average standard deviation (MASD) as a measure of exchange rate volatility produced a negative insignificant impact of exchange rate volatility on real exports of Namibia. The last measure of exchange rate volatility was the general autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH), which indicated a positive and significant impact of exchange rate volatility on Namibia''s real exports. These results suggest that Namibia should start exploring possibility of macro-economic policy independence and be involved in the determination of exchange rate within the CMA framework.