PREDICTING THE DYNAMICS OF DEVELOPMENT AND THE MAGNITUDE OF THE COVID 19 PANDEMIC

The book consists of a preface and two parts.The author argues that the S-shaped, or logistic function (LF) is a very fruitful tool in investigating the dynamics of the COVID 19 pandemic.Part1 The dynamics of coronavirus spread from the perspective of chemical reaction kinetics.From the perspective of branched reaction chain kinetics, data on coronavirus spread in Russia, Sweden, Moscow and Yakutia have been analysed. At certain time intervals the dynamics of this process is described by LF. Part2. Development of COVID 19 chain spreading model.In it the correctness of the mathematical model of pandemic coronavirus spreading as a branching-chain (autocatalytic) reaction is confirmed. The results of interpretation of statistical data within this model for already completed - first and second - and ongoing (May-June 2021) third waves of coronavirus for the city (Moscow), region (Yakutia) and country (Russia) are presented.