Increase in Protein Demand for China's Livestock Sector and Ist Implications for International Agricultural Trade

The objectives of the investigation presented in this volume are to analyze supply,

demand, and trade of protein ingredients (oilseed meals, fi shmeal, meat and bone

meal) in China, as well as the infl uence of internal and external determinants and

changes in the macro-economic policies on these markets. The conceptual framework

used for that purpose is the basic structural model for analyzing agricultural

commodity markets. The defi cit status and trade situation of protein ingredients are

simulated within that framework. The results of the econometric analyses indicate

that supply of and demand for soybeans have become less-price responsive in China.

The relationships between livestock production and crush demand for protein

meals as well as their joint oilseeds turned out to be positive. There are constraints

on the expansion of soybean harvest areas in China, which is consistent with the

lack of suffi cient protein meals in the country¿s livestock sector. Technical change, in

contrast, has a positive and signifi cant effect on Chinäs soybean production.

Chinäs WTO accession does not have a signifi cant impact on its soybean imports

according to this investigation; the rising livestock output is the main driving force

boosting them. Chinäs soybean imports have become sensitive to the price development

of price differences between the domestic and the world market. The regulations

on Genetically Modifi ed Organisms (GMO) and food safety policy potentially

have strong infl uence on the trade of protein meals and their joint oilseeds. The basic

scenario result indicates that Chinäs soybean import dependency rate will substantially

increase over the coming years.