Financial Feasibility Analysis of a new cement plant in Mongolia

Mongolia imports nearly 80% of its cement supply from neighboring China. Thus there is an urgent need for a new cement plant to be built in the country to meet its growing demand. In order to successfully implement the project, financial feasibility study along with risk analysis is conducted for potential investment. The source of the project cash inflows is revenue from its sales. Therefore using the past 9 years time series observations on the total consumption of the country, the future years demand is forecasted applying Holt¿s linear exponential smoothing technique. To see if the project is worth more than it costs, both NPV and IRR are also estimated. Stochastic risk analysis is conducted based on the discounted cash flow modeling to determine the magnitude of consequence of importan parameters like inflation rate and sales volume etc. to the total value of the project. The outputs illustrate that the cement plant project is worth undertaking an investment.