Effect of climate change on the Kroumirie region

Like all Mediterranean countries, Tunisia is affected by the impact of climate change (CC) and the greenhouse effect. In our study, we are interested in the region of Kroumirie (North-West) of Tunisia where the largest forest of cork oak is located. The main objective of this work is to analyze the climatic evolution in this region, as well as future climate projections. The results obtained for the region of study, under the scenario RCP4.5, at the horizon 2040 and 2100, show a tendency towards the increase of the maximum temperatures comprised between +1,5°C and +2,5°C. An increase in minimum temperatures between +1.3°C and +2.3°C and a decrease in precipitation between 3.6% and 16%, respectively, suggest a strong increase in water requirements and a decrease in the productivity of the subera ecosystem. The importance of the direct and indirect impacts of CC on our forests, requires adaptation measures to increase the resilience of the ecosystem and ensure its sustainability and the services it provides for both the local population and society.