Construction Project Risk Analysis via Evidential Reasoning

This book explores the theory and practice of risk assessment and project evaluation and proposes novel alternatives. Reviewing the literature reveals a continuous endeavour for better risk modelling and analysis. The low take-up of the various Decision Support Systems available for such purposes and the frequent reliance on personal judgment and professional experience make the quest for better alternatives a viable goal. In this book, a new risk model is proposed and an innovative risk assessment and project evaluation methodology is devised based on Dempster-Shafer Theory of Evidence (DST). The viability of the proposals was investigated through close engagement with construction professionals representing a wide spectrum of British construction companies. It is concluded that the product of this research project provides novel alternatives to the existing models and frameworks. It is believed that the contribution of this book would help in closing the existing gap between theory and practice of risk analysis and decision making in construction industry as well as in other project-based industries.