Cancelled transition - The dilemma of civil society in Belarus

Scientific Essay from the year 2008 in the subject Politics - International Politics - Region: Russia, , course: Conference "Belarus in Europe: Economic Cooperation and Political Dialogue", language: English, abstract: The fact that demonstrations and street rallies in Belarus are only modestly attended

witness that the extent of European and American criticism seems to be more virulent than

the domestic resistance against the state authorities. As a matter of fact, in the 14th year

of Lukashenkös presidency we have to ask ourselves why the level of civil disobedience

still remains very low. One assessment in this regard is beyond question: The argument of

the ¿people¿s fear of the authorities¿ doesn¿t serve any longer as the sole means of

explanation. The reasons for the longevity of this authoritarian regime in the heart of

Europe are cross-linked: On the one hand, the historical weakness and the reluctance of

the domestic political elite to accept independence in 1991 are very often brought into the

discussion. Apart from this, also Russian economic support made it possible for Belarus to

navigate itself into a deadlock in its relations with the EU. There may be other reasons

which can explain the contemporary situation of a political cul-de-sac. However, the EU

decision makers would be well advised to deal with two subjects: First of all, they should

seriously consider how much influence they really have over this awkward country and

secondly, they should ¿ based on the first consideration ¿ come to reasonable decisions.

The imposition of visa bans altogether with the conditional approach of EU rapprochement

will not enhance the chances of democratization for Belarus. This ¿strategy¿ will have the

opposite of the intended effect and provides the authorities with new tools to accuse the

opposition of anti-Belarusian behavior.