adam WYCISK on STRATEGIC decision making

Over forty years ago Tversky and Kahneman argued that ¿¿many [by humans taken] decisions are based on beliefs concerning the likelihood of uncertain events¿¿ and that simultaneously biases have a strong impact on ¿¿the intuitive judgment of probability¿ therefore consequently also on perceived risks, value of opportunities and finally decisions. Understanding business leaders as human decision makers, the author of this paper examined a human¿s fundamental ability respectively limitations to act as a fully rational economic agent and to take rational strategic decisions. While investigating aspects related to forecasting in the context of decision-making the researcher assumed that indeterminism is true and explored the nature and influence of variables relevant to the continuously changing socioeconomic environment and the correlating limits of predictability. Research concerned with human limitations to act rationally, rational choice theory, the limits of rational choice theory and the hypothesis that socioeconomic systems are nondeterministic, chaotic, and highly complex also played a crucial role.