The efficiency of early warning indicators for financial crises

Inhaltsangabe:Abstract:

The banking and currency crises of the last two decades inflicted substantial financial, economic, and social damage on the countries in which they originated. In this work, the efficiency of early warning indicators for these disastrous economic events is evaluated. An analysis of the traditional and recent literature on currency crises is performed in order to extract potential early warning indicators that are suggested by theory. Alongside others, these candidate indicators are tested in alternative empirical studies that are reviewed in this work. The results are mixed, but somewhat encouraging for further research in this field. Furthermore, the analysis is extended to a critique of systems of early warning indicators currently used by international institutions.

Inhaltsverzeichnis:Table of Contents:

1.Introduction1

2.The Currency Crisis Literature as a Reference Point for the Identification of Early Warning Indicators4

2.1The Traditional Theory5

2.2Second Generation Models11

2.3A Cross-generation Framework Proposition19

2.4Early Warning Indicators as Suggested by Theory22

3.The Empirical Assessment of Early Warning Indicators24

3.1Univariate Indicators for Financial Crises24

3.1.1Cross-Country Regressions26

3.1.2Multivariate Probit Models35

3.1.3The Signals Approach40

3.2Composite Leading Indicators for Financial Crises48

4.A Critique of Early Warning Indicators Used in Practice53

5.Conclusion64

Appendix68

Bibliography69