Spatial Simulation Modeling

This book projects residential development in Hudson River Valley watersheds within Dutchess County in New York State using an integrated modeling framework consisting of a novel spatial econometric model, a geographic information system (GIS), and Monte Carlo simulation. A spatial econometric model is used to project residential development at the tributary watershed level, sub-watershed level, and census block level. GIS is employed to extract socio-economic and county-level tax parcel data to be used in conjunction with bio-geophysical attributes, such as slope, soil, and location attributes, to calculate and project growth trends on a residential level for undeveloped land parcels. Monte Carlo simulation is used to distribute these projections into the GIS to display dynamic development scenarios using regional maps to help policy-makers in their decision-making processes. Detailed case studies, consisting of several related scenarios, are used to present stakeholders the economic, social, and environmental implications of a possible course of action.