Predicting the consequences of default

Data on defaults in Argentina, Uruguay, Russia, Mexico have been collected. According to these data, models have been developed to forecast the rate of decline in GDP per capita, consumer price index, wages and national currency against the US dollar. These models have been applied to predict a possible default in Ukraine. The forecast showed that 0.86 is likely to default in 2020 and the country's economy to reach 2019 is possible no earlier than 2025. At the same time, the GDP per capita will fall by 82.63%, the consumer price index will increase by 1.8 times, compared to its last value in 2017, the level of remuneration due to the country's default in the first year will fall by 22, 5% against the last value of this indicator in 2017, the national currency rate against the US dollar will increase by 226% compared to the last value in 2018.