MODELLING BUS TRANSIT NETWORK EVOLUTION

This book represents a PhD dissertation that developed a modelling framework, known as PREMOTRANE, which aimed to simulate the behaviour of public transit agencies when they make changes to periodic transit services. The purpose of this model is to predict bus transit network evolution in future time steps. This research project was initiated to develop a model component to the ILUTE urban/transportation simulation framework that represents the evolution of transit bus networks. This model, also, is a useful tool for the transit planners to support their decisions when they apply a change to their networks or to test different strategies and project alternatives they plan to apply. The approach for developing such model was multi- phased, starting with an empirical analysis of the relationship between network changes and various factors. PREMOTRANE was resulted in the main phase of this project, which is a decision support system model in a GIS platform. This model is a function of several factors such as ridership and land-use, and is influenced by the guidelines that are followed by transit agencies and included in their service standards.