Modeling Share Behaviour in Nigeria

Scientific Study from the year 2020 in the subject Economics - Case Scenarios, grade: A, University of Benin (Management Sciences), language: English, abstract: The study examines the relationship between selected variables (interest rate, exchange rate, money supply, real domestic product, inflation rate, crude oil price and political instability) and share price behaviour in Nigeria ranging from 1985-2016.

The study adopted the a-Augmented Dickey-Fuller unit root and the Johansen co-integration test. Error Correction Model was employed to determine the short run impact of the variables and multivariate ordinary least square (ols) with an ar (1) error fitted to the data to determine the long run impact of the variables.

The study revealed that crude oil price, money supply and real domestic product have significant impact on share price behaviour in the short run while all the selected variables (interest rate, exchange rate, money supply, real domestic product, inflation rate, crude oil price and political instability) have no significant impact on share price behaviour in the long run.

The study also reveals a negative relationship between interest rate, exchange rate, inflation rate and political instability and share price behaviour in the short run while in the long run, all the variables are positively related to share price behaviour except exchange rate and political instability which had negative relationships.