Generation System Reliability Assessment Using Probabilistic Approach

Generation adequacy assessment of electrical power systems is vital in ensuring proper decision making in generation expansion planning and system operations in the face of stochastic system performance such as equipment failures and variations of generation and load. This book presents the methodology of assessing generation adequacy of generation systems using the probabilistic approach.The analytical method is applied to evaluate the stochastic system performance and reliability indices. In this book, the generation adequacy of the Zesco generation system was assessed considering the existing and the future generation capacity. The purpose of the Zesco generation system studies were to assess the adequacy of generation system to meet the load requirements taking into consideration the existing and projected energy demand. The results show that Zesco system was not very adequate in 2009 to meet the load requirements. On the other hand, the system will be able to meet the load requirements by 2020 after addition of new generation capacity of 1280MW to the system.