{"product_id":"the-prospect-of-rosy-investment-forecasts-von-michael-heyer","title":"The Prospect of Rosy Investment Forecasts","description":"\u003cp\u003eThere is substantial evidence that forecasts made by professionals in a variety of fields display a bias that suggests overconfidence or optimism. This paper investigates EU survey data on investment growth forecasts. A review of the existing literature finds a plethora of behavioral reasons for the biases. Consequently, this paper decides to use the Prospect Theory as an explanatory framework. A hypothesis is developed that links the forecasting bias to asymmetric behavior between potential gains and losses as well as risk-seeking and risk-averse behavior among forecasters. It is due to this behavior that actual investments do not equal planned investments, resulting in a positive bias.\u003c\/p\u003e\u003cdiv class=\"aw-variant-hidden-subtitle-div\" id=\"aw-variant-subtitle-9783844300444\"\u003e\u003ch3\u003eWhy professional investment grow forecasts tend to display overconfidence and optimism\u003c\/h3\u003e\u003c\/div\u003e","brand":"Autorenwelt Shop","offers":[{"title":"Softcover - 9783844300444","offer_id":39497078145117,"sku":"9783844300444","price":49.0,"currency_code":"EUR","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0940\/0622\/files\/c852a070-3224-4b00-8fd2-681036c5cff9.jpg?v=1775194259","url":"https:\/\/shop.autorenwelt.de\/products\/the-prospect-of-rosy-investment-forecasts-von-michael-heyer","provider":"Autorenwelt Shop","version":"1.0","type":"link"}