{"product_id":"the-cycle-is-the-trend-von-victor-rogulenko","title":"The Cycle Is the Trend","description":"\u003cp\u003eIn their seminal paper, Aguiar and Gopinath (2007) develop a dynamic general equilibrium model with permanent (trend) and transitory shocks and show on a 1980-2003 dataset for Canada and Mexico that the relative importance of permanent to transitory hocks distinguishes emerging markets from developed small open economies. I extend their framework over the period 1980-2012 and include Mexico, Brazil, and Argentina as benchmark emerging markets and Canada, Portugal, and Spain as their developed counterparts. In contrast with Aguiar and Gopinath, I find that big economic events, rather than particular market classications, determine the volatility of the output trend in any given country.\u003c\/p\u003e\u003cdiv class=\"aw-variant-hidden-subtitle-div\" id=\"aw-variant-subtitle-9783659431692\"\u003e\u003ch3\u003eA Distinction of Emerging Market Business Cycles?\u003c\/h3\u003e\u003c\/div\u003e","brand":"Autorenwelt Shop","offers":[{"title":"Softcover - 9783659431692","offer_id":39484177350749,"sku":"9783659431692","price":35.9,"currency_code":"EUR","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0940\/0622\/files\/200001ab-80b4-4280-960f-c8fe5e3f5473.jpg?v=1774679450","url":"https:\/\/shop.autorenwelt.de\/products\/the-cycle-is-the-trend-von-victor-rogulenko","provider":"Autorenwelt Shop","version":"1.0","type":"link"}