{"product_id":"predictive-behavior-an-experimental-study-von-gunnar-brennscheidt","title":"Predictive Behavior","description":"This book describes a series of laboratory experiments (with\na total of 167 independent subjects) on forecasting\nbehavior. In all experiments, the time series to be\nforecasted was generated by an abstract econometric            model\ninvolving two or three artificial exogenous variables. This\ndesignprovides an optimal background for rational\nexpectations and least-squares  learning. As expected, these\nhypotheses do not explain observed forecasting behavior\nsatisfactorily. Some phenomena related to this lack                of\nrationality are studied: Concentration on changes rather\nthan levels,underestimation of changes and overvaluation of\nvolatile exogenous          variables. Some learning behavior is\nobserved. Finally, some aspects of     individual forecasts such\nas prominence of \"round\" number, dispersion, etc.,are\nstudied.\u003cdiv class=\"aw-variant-hidden-subtitle-div\" id=\"aw-variant-subtitle-9783540573111\"\u003e\u003ch3\u003eAn Experimental Study\u003c\/h3\u003e\u003c\/div\u003e","brand":"Libri","offers":[{"title":"Softcover - 9783540573111","offer_id":39437418332253,"sku":"9783540573111","price":53.49,"currency_code":"EUR","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0940\/0622\/files\/cb1e70d8-6962-46f5-a47b-b340acf18809.jpg?v=1773380077","url":"https:\/\/shop.autorenwelt.de\/en\/products\/predictive-behavior-an-experimental-study-von-gunnar-brennscheidt","provider":"Autorenwelt Shop","version":"1.0","type":"link"}